关键词: 基于智能体的建模（ABM）, 流行病传播, 社群单元, 复杂网络, 新型冠状病毒(COVID-19) , 公共卫生干预

Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has occurred since the end of 2019 and caused great concern and reflection about the pandemic's spread. From the urban planning perspective, the duration of the pandemic and the number of infected people should be emphasised. The relationship between the pandemic's spread and the urban space should also be analysed, including the spatial distribution feature of the infected group and the influence of different spatial layouts on the pandemic's spreading trend. The author has constructed an agent-based urban community epidemic spread model to explore the spatial law of the pandemic's spread and impact of urban spatial layouts on the spread of epidemic diseases to remove the limitations of traditional epidemic spread models in computing and manifesting the features of urban spaces. The model system mainly consists of spatial nodes based on community units. The urban spatial network is comprised of long and short ranges with characteristics of a"small world," a pandemic spread mechanism categorised by SEIR, mathematical expressions of prevention, and control measures. It can simulate the spread of epidemic diseases in urban spaces via distributed artificial intelligence. The model is used to simulate the epidemic spreading by taking the COVID-19 pandemic in Wuhan as an example to further verify its function in monitoring the spread of epidemic diseases. The model combed the spatial feature of Wuhan, and these applied prevention and control measures, such as policy publicity, monitoring and isolation. The simulated result and comparison of statistical data show that the intelligent agent-based urban community epidemic spread model can accurately predict the duration of the epidemic spread and the number and spatial distribution of infection nodes. It can also effectively simulate the impact of various public health intervention measures on the development of the epidemic, thus improving a city's crisis prevention and control capacity and building a healthy and safe spatial system. Compared to traditional dynamic models for infectious diseases, the strong point of the intelligent agent-based urban community epidemic spread model is that it considered the impact of the urban space and population activities on the disease's spread. It can also forecast the spatial distribution of the epidemic spread. However, its shortcoming is that it lacks the micro demonstration of internal disease dissemination in the same community and cannot accurately predict the number of infected people.

Key words: agent-based modelling(ABM), spread of epidemic, community unit, complex network, novel coronavirus (COVID-19), public health intervention