关键词: 商业空间, 演变特征, 商业中心, 势力范围, 广州市

Abstract: The evolution of urban commercial space reflects the interaction between urbanization and socioeconomic development. It also serves as a key carrier of urban spatial structural optimization and changes in residents' consumer behaviors. In this study, dynamic evolution characteristics of commercial space from 2012 to 2022 were investigated systematically, aiming to disclose variation laws of commercial space in mega-cities in the context of rapid urbanization, consumption upgrading, and technological transformation. A quantitative analysis of multidimensional commercial space changes was conducted using kernel density analysis, gravity models, and sphere-of-influence delineation based on point-of-interest (POI) data from three time periods. Results showed that: (1) Commercial space in Guangzhou has experienced distinct phases of development. From 2012 to 2017, the city underwent rapid expansion, with the number of commercial facilities increasing from 91,300 to 470,400. From 2017 to 2022, the city entered a relatively stable phase. The total number of facilities was basically stable. The structure of commercial format structures also shifted, characterized by an increase in catering services, a contraction in retail services, and improvements in support services. Specifically, the proportion of catering facilities rose from 22.13% to 33.41%, whereas shopping facilities decreased from 69.46% to 56.97%, indicating a shift in consumer demand from "necessity-oriented" to "experience-oriented" consumption. (2) Concerning spatial distribution, commercial facilities exhibit a clear pattern of spatial clustering, gradually spreading along metro transit lines. A dual-core structure has emerged, centered on the Tianhe Road-Zhujiang New Town area and the Beijing Road area in Yuexiu District. A cross-shaped expansion pattern formed from 2012 to 2017, and local spatial adjustment was presented from 2017 to 2022. Commercial density intensified in key areas but declined in others, which might be related to the COVID-19 pandemic and changing consumer preferences. (3) The business center system in Guangzhou has undergone significant restructuring in the past decade. The number of business centers increased from 10 to 25, forming a hierarchical structure characterized by "dual-core leadership, linear expansion, and multi-nodal support". The hierarchical business center system was formed gradually. This system covers two primary municipal business centers, six secondary municipal centers, six regional centers, and 11 regional nodes. As the traditional primary business center, Beijing Road formed a dual-center system with the Tianhe Road business district. (4) The sphere of influence of business centers exhibits a spatial distribution pattern of "continuous distribution in the central urban area and isolated clusters in peripheral districts". The central urban area was covered completely, and the business structure dominated by Beijing Road shifted to its co-leadership with Tianhe Road-Zhujiang New Town. There is a significant expansion in peripheral areas, whereas the sphere of influence in some centers weakened in the late phase. This revealed that the market competitiveness and risk resistance have to be improved. In sum, the evolution of commercial space in Guangzhou reveals a shift from quantitative expansion to qualitative optimization, which was driven by multiple factors. These include the development of rail transit, the rise of e-commerce, changes in consumer behavior, and policy support. Future urban commercial space planning should pay attention to multilevel layouts, balance traditional and emerging business districts, facilitate coordinated development of central urban and peripheral areas, optimize business network systems, and promote the balanced and sustainable development of urban commercial space.

Key words: commercial space, evolution characteristics, business center, sphere of influence, Guangzhou